The Arizona economy has continued to churn out solid gains so far in 2023. Jobs, wages, and sales all increased, although at a somewhat slower pace than earlier in the pandemic recovery. The labor market remains very tight, with some small signs of loosening. Phoenix inflation has decelerated to the national rate, thanks to slower gains in house prices, but housing affordability remains well below pre-pandemic levels.
Where are the global, national, state, and local economies headed next? Is the Fed done raising interest rates and can it succeed in bringing inflation down without causing a recession? Will state and local house prices moderate or continue to hit new highs? Will rising unemployment put downward pressure on wages? How will construction activity fare with low housing affordability?
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